Speaker Nancy Pelosi has a ready-made reply when pressed on impeaching President Donald Trump: Democrats have tasked six powerful committees with investigating Trump's conduct, and they'll "follow the facts" to chart a course for the House.
But a POLITICO review of those six committees reveals that the members of their members are significantly more inclined to back impeachment than the rest of the House.
The panels in Pelosi's talking points are the Intelligence, Judiciary, Oversight, Foreign Affairs, Financial Services and Ways and Means committees. Each has been charged with investigating an aspect of Trump's finances, personal conduct, foreign relationships and business ties. As impeachment fervor has raged among progressives across the country, Pelosi has consistently referenced the six committees and urged patience.
"I'm very proud of the work of the — our committees, six great committees, following the facts and making decisions about how we go forward," Pelosi said at a June press conference.
She expressed similar sentiments a month earlier: "We have six committees, so many members so experienced in terms of the law and our Constitution, chairmen who are excellent — we'll take our lead from them," Pelosi said at a May event in Massachusetts.
Yet of the 114 Democrats who sit on the committees, almost half — 50 — publicly support launching a formal impeachment inquiry, with several others privately considering joining them in the coming days or weeks.
These members make up the bulk of the more than 80 House Democrats who have endorsed impeachment proceedings. And as those numbers grow, so too might the pressure on Pelosi to change course.
Many lawmakers say an impeachment inquiry is the only way to break a relentless White House effort to stonewall the committees' investigations. Others say Trump's conduct described in former special counsel Robert Mueller's report warrants impeachment, and others still assert that Trump has committed numerous "high crimes and misdemeanors" that necessitate removal from office.
For now, Pelosi remains unmoved, concerned that any political blowback could cost Democrats their House majority. And while the rank-and-file on the committees are warming to impeachment, the chairmen mostly remain in Pelosi's camp — an important bulwark for the speaker.
Pelosi and her lieutenants have also argued that impeachment could polarize the country and backfire because the Republican-controlled Senate is virtually guaranteed to acquit Trump — handing the president a potent talking point heading into the 2020 election season. A senior Democratic aide noted that the speaker has indicated she wants to see public sentiment shift in favor of impeachment, as well as meaningful Republican buy-in, before she would consider it.
Democratic lawmakers and aides say it's no surprise that the committees leading the Trump investigations are the most receptive to calls for impeachment proceedings — they're the ones in the trenches with the White House and most familiar with Trump's stonewalling.
"Most have seen enough to recognize that there is robust evidence of high crimes and misdemeanors," said Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.), a member of the Judiciary and Oversight committees.
The group of Democrats favoring impeachment proceedings is surprisingly ideologically diverse. It includes some of the most progressive members of the House Democratic caucus — Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) — and lawmakers who have been designated by their own party as five of the most vulnerable in 2020: Reps. Katie Porter (D-Calif.), Tom Malinowski (D-N.J.), Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-Fla.), Sean Casten (D-Ill.), and Harley Rouda (D-Calif.).
Rouda, who announced his decision on pursuing impeachment to POLITICO on Thursday, said it was "not difficult at all." The freshman Democrat, who represents a historically Republican district, had set a deadline of the end of June for the Trump administration to comply with all congressional oversight demands and subpoenas.
"For me, it was eyes watering up, a solemn moment. For me, the interpretation of the Constitution should not be driven by who's in office or polling or political winds," Rouda said in an interview. "I'm disappointed that there are members here who interpret the Constitution differently based on who's in office."
But some Democrats argued that Pelosi's calculus on impeachment is unlikely to be swayed by the sheer number of Democrats who endorse the process — even if it becomes a majority of the caucus.
"She's pretty tough. It should ratchet up the pressure. But I don't believe it is," said Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-Mass.), a senior member of the Oversight Committee who supports Pelosi's view. "She is firmly convinced that she is right. And I don't disagree with her. I think she is right. Sometimes, knowing you're right helps you resist unwanted pressure."
Other lawmakers and aides say Pelosi's deference to the six committees is really code for her reliance on the six committee chairs — who are constantly taking the temperature of their colleagues and reporting back to her. These trusted lieutenants meet with Pelosi weekly to discuss investigative strategy, and most have hewed closely to her position on impeachment.
"[M]y judgment will spring from the judgment of our committee chairs," Pelosi said last month.
Of the six, only Financial Services Chairwoman Maxine Waters (D-Calif.), has called for Trump's impeachment.
Yet one Democratic lawmaker, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, noted that the committee chairs themselves are susceptible to pressure from their members, which means the growing ranks of those favoring an impeachment inquiry could change the equation. Additionally, pro-impeachment Democrats hope Mueller's July 17 testimony might open up the floodgates.
Each of the six investigative committees has faced different challenges in their efforts to probe Trump, leading to varying conclusions by their members.
The committees have taken a hard line against the Trump administration, holding officials in contempt of Congress and preparing to wage battles in federal court to enforce their subpoenas that have been summarily ignored.
"My personal position does not derive from being on an oversight committee," Malinowski said in an interview. "It was not just the Mueller report. It was the continued obstruction of the investigations and the oversight requests."
To calculate the support for impeachment among the six committees, POLITICO reviewed public statements by the lawmakers and interviewed dozens of House members and aides. The analysis accounted for the more-than-two-dozen members who sit on two of the six committees, and it excluded the three non-voting delegates from U.S. territories and the District of Columbia who sit on various committees. Some of the pro-impeachment Democrats sit on more than one of the critical six panels.
Here's the breakdown of support for an impeachment inquiry from Democrats on each committee.
Judiciary: 15 out of 24 Democrats
The Judiciary Committee, which is traditionally tasked with leading the impeachment process, has been the most directly engaged in a confrontation with the White House over access to documents and witnesses related to Mueller's probe — particularly the evidence that Trump obstructed the investigation.
The committee's chairman, Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.), has privately advocated to launch an impeachment inquiry, but he has publicly held Pelosi's line.
Intelligence: 6 out of 13 Democrats
The Intelligence Committee has been reviewing Mueller's evidence of contacts between the Trump campaign and Russia and whether Mueller's still-secret counterintelligence evidence exposes national security risks.
The most recent endorsement came from Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn.), the panel's second-highest ranking member, in a significant win for pro-impeachment forces. Himes is a leader of the moderate New Democrats Coalition in Congress, which has generally shied away from the impeachment discussion.
"This is a moment for clarity. It's a moment for speaking with conviction," Himes told reporters, adding that he doesn't buy the conventional wisdom that impeachment could help Trump politically. "On balance, a public airing of the facts… would probably work to his disadvantage."
The committee's chairman, Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), is a close Pelosi ally and has resisted an impeachment inquiry.
Oversight: 12 out of 22 Democrats
The Oversight Committee, chaired by Rep. Elijah Cummings (D-Md.), has been examining Trump's hush payments to women who accused him of extramarital affairs in advance of the 2016 election. It has also been pursuing questions about Trump's net worth and whether he lied to financial institutions to misrepresent his assets and debts.
Like the Judiciary Committee, a majority of the panel's Democrats support opening an impeachment inquiry.
Financial Services: 16 out of 33 Democrats
The sprawling Financial Services Committee is the only panel among Pelosi's six investigative teams chaired by a lawmaker who eagerly supports impeaching Trump: Rep. Maxine Waters.
The California Democrat's committee is pursuing litigation against Deutsche Bank, which has a longstanding relationship with Trump and has been implicated in allegations over Russian money-laundering.
Ways and Means: 11 out of 25 Democrats
The powerful tax-writing committee is chaired by Rep. Richard Neal (D-Mass.), who is seeking access to Trump's tax returns from the IRS and recently issued a subpoena after the Treasury Department refused to comply. The Trump administration disregarded that subpoena, and Neal is expected to go to court soon to enforce it.
Foreign Affairs: 9 out of 26 Democrats
The membership of this committee is the least inclined among the big six toward an impeachment inquiry.
The panel, chaired by Rep. Eliot Engel (D-N.Y.), has been pursuing details of Trump's private interactions with Russian President Vladimir Putin, in addition to his conduct and posture on the world stage. Some of those probes even have buy-in from Republicans.
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